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What are the odds of seeing the Northern Lights in southern Norway tonight?

Robin-Ivan Capar
Robin-Ivan Capar - [email protected]
What are the odds of seeing the Northern Lights in southern Norway tonight?
A photo of the Northern Lights in Bergen on Monday. Photo by: Readers of The Local Norway

Stargazers in Norway were treated to strong showings of the Northern Lights on Sunday and Monday. For those who missed out, there may be another chance to see the lights on Tuesday night.

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Clear weather on Monday evening and a strong Kp forecast contributed to a number of good opportunities to experience the Northern Lights in the south and west of Norway. However, if you missed Monday's Northern Light show, you might get another chance on Tuesday night. 

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Managing expectations

State meteorologist Martin Granerød told Norwegian Broadcasting (NRK) that clear skies are expected for the next few days, and - according to the weather service Yr.no - Aurora activity is expected in places such as Bergen and Hamar on Tuesday.

Meteorologists use the Kp index (which ranges from 0 to 9) to illustrate the probability of seeing the Northern Lights. As Yr.no explains, 0 means low activity, while a Kp index of 9 means an intense geomagnetic storm is underway.

So, to put it shortly – the higher the Kp value, the greater the probability of seeing the Northern Lights.

On Monday evening, the index was between 5 and 7 – which are high values. However, on Tuesday night, the index value is expected to land between 3 to 4, and on Wednesday, it will likely further fall to between 2 and 3, according to meteorologist Granerød.

These means that while the odds are lower compared to Monday and Sunday, it may be possible to see the lights. However, those further south in Norway such as Oslo and Kristiansand may be left disappointed. 

Northern lights occur when particles from the sun hit the earth's atmosphere.

You can read more about how to calculate your likelihood of seeing the lights and how to take the best photos here

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