How much could Norwegian property prices fall next year?

Frazer Norwell
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How much could Norwegian property prices fall next year?
Property prices in Norway will likely decline in the next year. Pictured are apartments on the Oslo fjord. Photo by Barnabas Davoti on Unsplash

Property prices in Norway are likely to fall for the majority of next year, Statistics Norway has predicted in its latest forecast for the Norwegian economy.


For the past three months, house prices in Norway have fallen. In its latest forecast for Norway’s economy, national data agency Statistics Norway said the cost of living increases could explain the fall and that the decline would continue.

“House prices have started to fall. This is explained by increased living costs and increased interest rates,” Thomas von Brasch, a researcher at Statistics Norway, said in the report on the Norwegian economy.

This would likely continue with house prices expected to fall in the next year.


“Since the start of the pandemic, housing prices have risen by around 20 percent. Although there will probably be a relatively strong house price fall in the future, the level of prices will still be far above the level from before the pandemic,” the researcher explained.

According to Statistics Norway’s calculations, Norwegian house prices will likely fall around eight percent from the third quarter of 2022 to the same period next year.

Meanwhile, Marius Hov, chief economist at Handelsbanken, told business and financial site E24 that house prices would fall by about seven percent between August this year and the same month in 2023.

He explained that the drop was natural due to rising interest rates in Norway. Since mid-2021, Norway’s Central Bank, Norges Bank, has raised the key policy rate sharply to curb inflation.

Its forecast predicted that interest rates would peak at around three percent next year. The current key policy rate is 2.5 percentage points.

The report also predicted a moderate decline in the economy overall.

“The state receives record high revenues from the oil and gas business, inflation is far above the inflation target, and there is high pressure in the labour market. The latter tends to coincide with economic upswings, but this is not the case now,” Thomas von Brasch from Statistics Norway explained.


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